Research on optimization of multi-scenario planting strategies for rural crops based on mixed integer linear programming
基于混合整数线性规划的乡村农作物多情境种植策略优化研究

摘要

本文以华北某山区乡村为研究对象，针对其农作物种植策略优化问题，采用混合整数线性规划（MILP）模型，对2024至2030年的农作物种植方案进行优化，旨在提升生产效益并减少市场波动和不确定性带来的风险，为乡村可持续发展提供支持。针对多阶段约束优化问题，模型综合考虑了地块类型、作物轮作、重茬禁忌、季节性限制及市场需求等多重因素，分别探讨了产量超出需求时的滞销与降价两种情境。建立混合整数线性规划模型，以最大化总收益并控制种植面积和轮作要求。结果表明，滞销情境下通过精确控制作物种植面积避免浪费，降价情境下则允许适度超产并平衡超产收益与降价损失。

Abstract

This paper takes a mountainous village in North China as the research object. Focusing on the optimization of its crop planting strategy, the mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model is adopted to optimize the crop planting plan from 2024 to 2030, aiming to enhance production efficiency and reduce the risks brought by market fluctuations and uncertainties, providing support for the sustainable development of the village. For multi-stage constrained optimization problems, the model comprehensively considers multiple factors such as plot type, crop rotation, continuous cropping taboos, seasonal restrictions, and market demand, and respectively explores two scenarios of overstocking and price reduction when the output exceeds the demand. Establish a mixed-integer linear programming model to maximize the total revenue and control the planting area and crop rotation requirements. The results show that in the case of overstocking, waste can be avoided by precisely controlling the planting area of crops, while in the case of price reduction, moderate overproduction is allowed and the gains from overproduction and the losses from price reduction can be balanced.