Construction of HFACS-IAHP risk coupling model for underground coal mines under dual prevention mechanism
双重预防机制下井工煤矿HFACS-IAHP风险耦合模型构建

摘要

双重预防机制是井工煤矿安全管理的核心框架，而风险耦合效应常导致单一风险演变为重大事故。将人因分析与分类系统（HFACS）与改进层次分析法（IAHP）结合，构建风险耦合模型可有效破解这一难题。该模型通过HFACS拆解人、机、环、管等维度的风险因子，借助IAHP量化因子间的耦合强度，识别关键耦合路径与风险叠加区域。此模型既实现了风险因子的系统性梳理，又提升了耦合风险评估的精准度，为井工煤矿风险分级管控与隐患排查治理提供了科学工具，助力双重预防机制落地见效。

Abstract

The dual prevention mechanism serves as the core framework for safety management in underground coal mines, yet the risk coupling effect often causes single risks to evolve into major accidents. Integrating the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with the Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (IAHP) to construct a risk coupling model can effectively address this issue. The model decomposes risk factors in dimensions such as human, machine, environment, and management through HFACS, and quantifies the coupling intensity between factors with the help of IAHP to identify key coupling paths and risk areas. This model not only realizes the systematic sorting of risk factors but also improves the accuracy of coupled risk assessment, providing a scientific tool for risk classification management and hidden danger investigation and governance in underground coal mines, and helping the dual prevention mechanism to take effect.