摘要
在气候变化加剧的背景下，流域水资源面临供需波动、极端事件频发以及生态压力增加等挑战。针对这一问题，本文提出了一种适应性管理模型，通过系统分析流域水文特征、气候因子及人类活动影响，构建决策支持框架，实现水资源的动态调控与优化分配。模型整合了预测、调度与风险评估功能，为流域管理提供科学依据，提高水资源应对不确定性的能力。
关键词： 气候变化；流域管理；水资源优化；适应性模型；决策支持
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change, river basins face challenges including fluctuating water supply-demand dynamics, frequent extreme events, and increasing ecological pressures. To address these issues, this study proposes an adaptive management model that systematically analyzes hydrological characteristics, climatic factors, and human activities to establish a decision support framework for dynamic regulation and optimized allocation of water resources. The model integrates prediction, scheduling, and risk assessment functions, providing scientific foundations for basin management and enhancing water resource resilience against uncertainties.
Key words： Climate change; Watershed management; Water resources optimization; Adaptive models; Decision support
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