Research on the impact of China’s inflation on the investment return of social security fund
我国通货膨胀对社保基金投资收益的影响研究

摘要

当前面临“十五五”规划开局与人口老龄化中度阶段，通货膨胀对社保基金投资影响显著。本文探究：通胀是否决定性影响社保基金收益？传导路径如何？基于国家统计局、国泰安及社保基金理事会数据，测算通胀率及相关变量，运用固定效应与中介效应模型检验。结果表明：通胀率与收益率呈非线性关系；市盈率与经济增长率作为中介变量，使二者正相关。最后，依据通胀重要性及传导机制，提出投资与监管建议。

Abstract

At the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period and amid a moderate stage of population aging, inflation exerts a significant impact on the investment of social security funds. This paper explores the following core issues: Does inflation play a decisive role in social security fund returns? What is its transmission mechanism? Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the China Stock Market & Accounting Research Database (CSMAR), and the National Council for Social Security Fund, this study measures the inflation rate and relevant variables, and conducts empirical tests using fixed-effects and mediation-effect models. The results show that there exists a nonlinear relationship between the inflation rate and the return rate; the price-earnings ratio and economic growth rate, as mediating variables, contribute to a positive correlation between inflation and investment returns. Finally, targeted suggestions for investment optimization and supervision improvement are proposed in light of the importance of inflation and its transmission mechanism.